We've MOVED!

We're changing channels here at Duke Research blog -- moving from the friendly confines of Blogger to a Duke server inside the Duke Research site.

We'll have the same great action-news team, (well, minus Monte the Weatherman, who has retired) and the same great coverage. Please tune the RSS feeds on your mobile devices and neural implants accordingly.

Vansh and Becca are off campus this summer, doing wonderful things in London, New Delhi and St. Louis, but they'll be back in the fall.

Please join us at http://sites.duke.edu/dukeresearch/

Narrative Control in the Digital Age

“Can’t the Internet control us just as easily as it can liberate us?” asked Jonathan Zittrain Wednesday night as part of the Provost’s 2010 lecture series. Zittrain is a law professor and co-founder of the Berkman Center for Internet and Society at Harvard University,

Zittrain explained that technology is changing the way we access and add to human knowledge. Our ever-increasing reliance on digital information can create difficult problems with regard to the historical record.

One major issue is that people, governments, organizations or corporations can justify revising the record for various reasons:

• national security


• privacy


• copyright


• fairness (jury taint, defamation, group insult)

Zittrain offered a few examples where publicly-available information was deemed harmful, and how the problem was dealt with.

Apparently, the EPA used to make “worst-case scenarios” available on the Internet: detailed information about what would have to be done, where, to cause the most damage to life and property. The intent was to let people know that ‘Hey, something really bad could happen. Just FYI.’ However, in the wrong hands, this information could practically be a step-by-step guide.

In response to the uproar that inevitably followed when the scenarios gained publicity, the government decided to establish government reading rooms, where interested parties could go in sans cameras or writing materials of any kind and read as much as their heart desired. According to Zittrain, “It’s quaint. It was totally well-meaning, but there is an element of comicalness to it.”

Another pitfall to recording history in the digital age is that information is increasingly consolidated. Imagine a future where Ebooks are used exclusively over their ink-and-paper counterparts. If for any reason an Ebook vendor changes the book (perhaps due to copyright or governmental regulation), digital rights management would allow the change to be reflected in every copy.

“This is how holes appear in the historical record in way they did not before,” Zittrain said. “It is terrifying!”

Distortions in the record can be just as significant, especially when they can’t be distinguished from truth. For example, sponsored editorials that are favorable of a particular policy or person. As Zittrain put it, “[the record] doesn’t say later ‘By the way, this was fake.’”

“So what do we do? This is not necessarily making for a more complete or accurate historical record.”

His solution: Don’t keep everything in the same place. Lots of copies keep stuff safe! Libraries can play a role by keeping copies to check against other available copies & the Google master copy (when Ebooks eventually predominate, as Zittrain believes).

Furthermore, compromises can be made. For example, if China objects to certain content being shown on YouTube, that content can be restricted to visitors from China without necessitating complete removal (and thus preserving the record).

We must protect the historical record, Zittrain argues, because our view of the past depends on who wrote the story.

Carbon Capture Could Be Key

If you've paid any attention to the green movement, you'll know that global carbon emissions have far outpaced natural levels, and that numerous efforts are underway to reduce emissions and the climate change they will cause.

But in spite of these efforts, “we are not on track to reduce global climate emissions,” Thomas Halsey of ExxonMobil Upstream Research said during a public lecture Wednesday. Renewable energy, improved transportation and energy efficiency have the potential to greatly reduce global emissions, but not to the degree that is necessary. If this is true, how do we fill the gap? One major factor will be carbon capture and storage - preventing carbon emissions from entering the atmosphere and causing warming.

“A lot of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere comes from relatively concentrated sources,” e.g. power plants rather than car tailpipes, Halsey said.

A few technologies exist for capturing carbon at power plants, with varying costs and efficiency. Post-combustion CO2 filtration is commercially available already. Pre-combustion carbon capture separates CO2 and injects only hydrogen as fuel for the turbine. Demonstration plants exist, but are plagued by problems due to the complexity of the technology. Oxy-Fuel combusts pure oxygen, but requires very high temperatures and thus large amounts of energy (somewhat negating the positive benefits).

The one thing all three technologies seem to have in common is their high cost. In countries that have a carbon tax, like Norway, carbon capture is more feasible. But in the United States, adoption of the technology is slow-going.

And carbon capture is just one part of the equation. Once extracted, where could the CO2 be put to prevent it from entering the atmosphere? Enhanced Oilfield Recovery (EOR) is one possibility for use; when CO2 is injected into oil or gas reservoirs, it increases rates of recovery. EOR has been practiced for many years and is already in use at more than 100 oil fields, although many more could potentially benefit.

Carbon sequestration, the traditional option, involves injecting captured CO2 into the earth, into either unmine-able coal beds, deep saline aquifers or depleted oil/gas reserves. Geological barriers prevent the gas from returning to the surface.

Techonology	Pros	Cons
Oil/Gas Reservoirs	Increased recovery	Scale and capacity Other people have drilled wells; might not know where they all are
Saline Aquifers	Large scale, distribution and capacity	Lack of research
Unmine-able Coal Beds	Increase coal bed methane production	Injectivity problems (coal swells with CO2 injection and blocks pathways); Pilot programs didn't work

Pros and cons must be carefully considered because “we don’t want to put the CO2 down and have it come back up,” Halsey said.

The Sleipner oil field in the North Sea, in use since 1998, has successfully injected 10 million tons of CO2 into an underground reservoir. Constant monitoring has shown some upward CO2 migration, but there is no evidence for leakage through the overlying shale barrier. The potential for earthquake activity is troublesome, but it is “a standard oil industry technical problem,” according to Halsey.

The monitoring required for such projects bring up an interesting issue-- who will be responsible for long-term storage stewardship? Companies would not be willing to invest if saddled with liability for hundreds of years. At some point, liability would need to be transferred to the public sector. Many issues exist, but if they are overcome, CCS could be a crucial tool for reducing catastrophic climate change.

Winter Forum Participants: In It to Win It (Day 2)

Day 1 of the inaugural Winter Forum witnessed an impressive range of activities, from lectures to thoughtful deliberation and passionate debate. Day 2 would promise no less.

At a meeting before winter break, law school professor Bill Brown introduced a special component of the Winter Forum: a startup business competition. He charged students with the task of creating a ‘green’ business that would maximize capital while maintaining a negative carbon footprint. Students were given $1 million to get the theoretical business off the ground.

Most work for the competition occurred over break, especially during the last few days.
Teams struggled to develop product / service design, marketing and financing strategies and detailed expense reports. Hundreds of details had to be tinkered with and agreed upon.

The results of this effort were presented Tuesday afternoon, after a morning spent discussing the merits and disadvantages of commercializing wind power in the United States. A panel of four venture capitalists would judge the teams’ proposals.

To get things started, competition organizer Bill Brown described the opportunities offered by green businesses. “We have a problem, and policy is likely to fall short. Innovation is essential, when all else fails and even before you try all else,” Brown said.

He noted how humans have faced seemingly insurmountable problems in the past -- pestilence, oppression and starvation, to name a few -- but applied science and technology made them manageable. He encouraged students to see innovation as the way forward.

“As a university, it’s our obligation to help you think of opportunity as more than just a job,” Brown said.

Photo credit: Hua FanTeam 1 began the presentations with their model for optimizing farmer’s markets. Other ideas ranged from an ecotourism travel site to building retrofitting, home energy metering, and green product certification. Team 4 proposed the winning idea: recycled cellulosic insulation to be installed in homes in Malaysia, an emerging market with fast-increasing emissions. The team received a $2,000 check from President Brodhead at a reception following the competition.

Some students might shrink from returning to school early and working hard when they could be relaxing. But Winter Forum participants saw an opportunity to give a little and gain a lot. For their time and their attention, students learned the ins and outs of an issue, flexed their communication skills and interacted with dedicated faculty.

I did not know what to expect from the Winter Forum. I put in the work over break, did research and emailed teammates I hadn’t even met in person, hoping that it would be good for something. As a result of the process, I built my group dynamics skills and developed relationships with wonderful teammates and faculty sponsors. For its first year, I believe the Forum was very successful at fulfilling its objectives, and no doubt will continue to grow in coming years.

A Timely TED Topic

Dan Ariely, the James B. Duke Professor of Behavioral Economics in the Fuqua School of Business and a senior fellow in Duke's Kenan Institute for Ethics, has done some provocative research on the gray areas in which people feel just a teensy bit comfortable cheating. At the most recent TED conference, he wowed the invitation-only audience on this topic.

We profiled Dan about a year ago in Duke Research magazine here. His clippings, alas, would fill a very large web site!

Issues in Computer Security

It took the 2003 Slammer worm just 30 minutes to propagate internationally in the United States, Europe and elsewhere though the Internet. And cyber criminals can exploit online systems to obtain the tax records of people who are downloading music. Clearly, the public is "concerned about the digital infrastructure," said North Carolina State University computer science professor Annie Antón. "They don't feel it's secure."

Antón, who studies the behavior of software systems that are vulnerable to security risks if they fail or are misused, was keynote speaker on security Tuesday, March 3 during a two-day summit at the Durham Performance Art Center on "Grand Challenges" for the future posed by the National Academy of Engineering.

There are other concerns about online privacy, Antón said. Some people, for example, are not passing on sensitive parts of their medical histories to physicians for fear medical insurers will use the information against them.

On the other aide of the coin, the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) that protects the privacy of patient information costs companies $25,000 per violation, presenting companies with powerful incentives to comply, she noted.

Industries have shown shortcomings in both "awareness" and "regulation," she said.

All these factors are presenting challenges for the writers of software code, said Antón, who is an internationally recognized expert on private policy in software systems.

How Low Can We Go?

Go ahead and ask anybody who has lost a third to a half of their retirement nest egg or college fund in the last six months and they'll tell you things are bad. But what do the professional money guys think?

The CFO Survey, a 12-year-old collaborative effort of the Fuqua School of Business and CFO Magazine, has been doing just that. And the bottom line from the latest quarterly data is not encouraging at all. The pros are as pessimistic as everyone else!

The survey asks chief financial officers to crystal-ball their employment, spending, earnings, tech investment and a host of other bellwether measurements. On average, they expect capital spending to fall by 10 percent in the coming year; tech spending to drop 4 percent; and marketing and advertising spending to drop by 7 percent. In short, we apparently haven't hit bottom yet.



(Click on the Swivel button to see more data and do your own data mashups!)

To open a shop is easy, to keep it open is an art

An Irish economist Richard Cantillon first coined the word entrepreneur, and described it as someone who is able to begin, sustain, and when necessary, effectively and efficiently dissolve a business entity. He answered the question "What is an entrepreneur?", but did not answer "How do you become an entrepreneur?" And that is exactly what Duke Entrepreneurship Education Series aims to do.

In September this year, the Duke Entrepreneurship Education Series (DEES) was started in collaboration with various Duke societies , including Fuqua's Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation (CEI) and Duke's Center for Entrepreneurship and Research Commercialization (CERC).It is targeted towards harnessing the entrepreneurship capabilities and expectations of Duke students, and equipping them with the basic knowledge to set up a successful venture. DEES is a series of 12 events, and every week distinguished Duke entrepreneurs are invited to connect and share the mantra of building a successful company.

Over the past few weeks, young and eminent Duke alum such as Aaron Patzer (CEO of mint.com) and Rich West (CEO of Advanced Liquid Logic) have delivered lectures on the key concepts of entrepreneurship, including planning , financing and venture capitalism. Business is not an orthodox set of rules anymore. "Failure is okay ," as Aaron Patzer points out in the inaugural Entrepreneurship 101 lecture. And there is reason enough to believe him, because before setting up the popular finance application mint.com, Aaron had got his hands wet in 3 ventures but could not make it work. The fourth one indeed did, and he recently won the TechCrunch 40 in 2007.

Dave Samuel, founder of the companies Spinner (purchased by AOL in 1999), Grouper (purchased by Sony in 2006), Brondell and Freestyle Capital, highlighted the importance of "Focus[ing] on doing one thing really well" in the Planning Your Startup 101 lecture. In the most recent lecture called Business Plan 101, Matt Kane, CEO of Precision Biosciences presented the curious students with effective ways to write and market a strategic business plan to investors and financing agencies. And in the session, called Venture Capital 101, Rob Hallford of Pappas Ventures and Amy Laverdiere of Hatteras Venture Partners demystified the factors that drive a venture capitalist to invest in a startup, and provided a thorough insight into the venture capitalism industry.

DEES is an exciting opportunity to help students come up with innovative developments in diverse fields, and enable them to market their product effectively. This series is scheduled to go on till 29th January 2009.